Download e-book for kindle: Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics by Franc Klaassen

By Franc Klaassen

ISBN-10: 0199355959

ISBN-13: 9780199355952

The sport of tennis increases many questions which are of curiosity to a statistician. Is it actual that commencing to serve in a collection provides a bonus? Are new balls a bonus? Is the 7th online game in a collection relatively vital? Are best avid gamers extra solid than different gamers? Do genuine champions win the massive issues? those and plenty of different questions are formulated as "hypotheses" and validated statistically.

Analyzing Wimbledon additionally discusses how the result of a fit could be estimated (even whereas the fit is in progress), which issues are vital and which aren't, how one can pick out an optimum provider technique, and no matter if "winning temper" truly exists in tennis. aimed toward readers with a few wisdom of arithmetic and data, the ebook makes use of tennis (Wimbledon specifically) as a motor vehicle to demonstrate the facility and sweetness of statistical reasoning.

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Extra info for Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics

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If the score reaches six-points-all, the winner is the first player achieving a two-point advantage. The tiebreak can also be compared to a set because the service rotates: in a set after every game, in a tiebreak after the first point and then after every two points. In a set there could be an advantage in serving first, because the player who serves first in the set is always the first to serve in a new pair of two games in that set; he or she is ‘always’ one game ahead. But even if there were a serving-first advantage in a set, there can be no such advantage in a tiebreak, because players alternate in being first.

The tiebreak was convincingly won 7-2 by Clijsters. 3%. Williams served first in the set and won her first service game. In the second game Clijsters was 0-30 and 30-40 behind, making Williams the favorite to win the match, but Clijsters held serve. At 1-1 Williams lost her service game. 7%. When Williams won the first point on her service in the next game, the match was completely balanced. 1% to 100%. In the final, Kim Clijsters defeated Vera Zvonareva in less than one hour. The swings in the match are clearly visible, in particular the swing at the end of the first set, the swing in the second set from 5-2 via 5-5 to 7-6, and the big swings in the final set.

First, the probability of reaching 2-2 in sets equals 3/8. This is because we have assumed that pi = pj , so that the probability that 26 Analyzing Wimbledon I wins a set is 1/2. There are six possibilities to reach 2-2 in sets: IIJ J , IJ IJ , IJ J I, J IIJ , J IJ I, J J II. Each of these has a probability of 1/16. Hence the probability of reaching 2-2 in sets is 6/16 = 3/8. This is an example of the binomial probability distribution. Second, we can use the binomial distribution to obtain the probability of reaching the score 5-5 in a set when both players have probability g to win their service game.

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Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics by Franc Klaassen

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